Poll Manipulation?

[DamieQue™]

So did anyone panic while I was gone? It doesn't look like it (way to go black people). Just like to point out 2 quick things:

www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

2 latest polls NOW have Obama back in the lead by 1. Look at the trends... how likely is it that Obama went down by 10 in one day and then made up all 10 points + one to go up? Is either ONE of those swings likely in 2 days? Probably not - Barack was probably only down a few and he probably only a gained a few back.

www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-madness-mccain-takes_n_125158.html

Some of it may have to do with sampling problems. Sampling more Democrats or more Republicans than actually represent the voting populace. (That means Obama's lead or deficit is going to be misrepresented through out the race)

Bottom line - can't get caught up in polls. For one - it's winning the states not the popular vote that counts. And depending on how many of a demographic they sample - you might be seeing too much or too little support for EITHER candidate.

Mission stays the same. Stay calm and cool - and let's do what's gotta be done in these last few weeks.

Who loves ya baby?

Damie loves ya.

[coldfront06]

I've never paid much attention to national polls. They are wrong much too often to be considered reliable...and like you said, the election is won by electoral votes. This is going to be a close race, plain and simple.

[Bunny Hop]

I've said this so many times on this site about statistics

[Vudu_Prince]

I guess its not a conspiracy after all.... The invisibles are trying to sway the voters... See the sentiment of the masses before THEY make the decision who will be president.


Unn huh (in Denzel drawl from training day)

[Gee-Are]

It's not just poll manipulation though The media is doing a good job of picking up McCain's talking points. Tonight, I actually heard a pundit, affiliated with Time magazine, say that Palin was a formidable opponent for BARACK OBAMA.

Really? How so? Because she got picked and repeats lies? How does that make her formidable? Maybe it's because the Obama campaign is trying to regroup, and they still don't have a good answer for Palin. Today, Obama actually addressed her, not negatively, but anytime he spends mentioning her, is time away from contrasting himself to McCain or addressing his own talking points. The media is picking up on that.

Sen. Obama, please don't treat the PALIN-McCain ticket the way Clinton's campaign treated you. Don't get caught off-guard. Let your surrogates address her, and you keep doing what you do.

And I know I said Palin-McCain. That's because they're pumping this ticket up like she's the headliner, and she is. I guess their sell is that she would be like Jason Garrett learning the ropes from Wade Phillips, and she'll be ready to be president the next term after some OTJT...

[Search1906]

As I stated before only in america can a black man educated at Columbia and Harvard law be considered on par with a white woman from the university of Idaho with a journalism degree who attended 6 schools in 5 years. :smh:

[DamieQue™]

Sept 10, 2008 9:21:06 GMT -5 Search1906 said:

As I stated before only in america can a black man educated at Columbia and Harvard law be considered on par with a white woman from the university of Idaho with a journalism degree who attended 6 schools in 5 years. :smh:

LOL - not so Search - not so. They say that Palin is MORE qualified - LOL.

Side note: To all those ladies who were arguing with me about male privilege and my assertion that it DIDN'T extend to black men the way that it worked for white males...

...here is where I rest my case on that topic.

[Cambist]

Amen.....

[Gee-Are]

This is what I'm talking about...


www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/359050/media_skews_obama_mccain_polling

Media Skews Obama-McCain Polling posted by Ari Berman on 09/11/2008 @ 10:52am

Take Action Comments (15) Subscribe Now Text SizeAAAParts of the media are so obsessed with the "Palin bounce" that they're ignoring or mislabeling the very facts they claim to cite.

A case in point is this latest headline from Time Magazine's Mark Halperin, based on new battleground polling from Quinnipiac University: "Palin Boosts McCain in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania." Yet a closer look inside the polling shows that Obama has actually widened his lead in Ohio, from a one point advantage in August to a five point advantage now. So how exactly is Palin giving McCain a bounce in Ohio?! This is just sloppy journalism.

True, McCain has widened his lead in Florida and cut Obama's margin in Pennsylvania. But a more accurate headline might read: "McCain Opens Lead in Florida, While Obama Expands Margin in Ohio, Race Tightens in Pennsylvania."

And, by the way, if Obama wins Ohio and Pennsylvania and McCain wins Florida, Obama most likely wins the election. But of course Halperin doesn't tell you that.

We're all a little too obsessed with polls these days. Remember, the race was essentially tied before the conventions [although one could argue that was a very good sign for McCain, given the morbidity of the Republican brand]. Obama got a bounce, then McCain did. And now it's basically tied again. The map of battleground states is shrinking, and looking a lot like 2000 and 2004. [Chris Bowers of Open Left has the best analysis of the current electoral map.] We have four debates and who knows what else between now and November 4. Take a deep breath and get ready for a wild ride.

[Prissy New Year!!!]

I am starting to worry.

I know I shouldn't, Barack is a strong candidate. I just fear that with the combination of racism and dirty tricks by the republicans, they might just win/steal this election.

[coldfront06]

Its certainly possible Prissy, and I think we SHOULD worry. As long as worrying makes us get out and register people to vote. I don't trust Republicans AT ALL. This election is far from a sure thing.